How COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout Impacts Mobility and Spending

Vaccine rollout leads to significant increase in activity, including mobility and spending

The spread of COVID-19 significantly reduced consumer spending and mobility, as people were forced to isolate and stay-at-home. Economic activity in these areas saw a sharp decline, after which a recovery period began as vaccine rollout started.

Economic activity has shown improvement since the beginning of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout, based on quantifiable measures including spending, mobility, education, and employment. Ashley Sexton and Maria D. Tito’s recent research paper uses data from the Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey (HPS) to quantify the progress of vaccine administration across states and in different population subgroups.

Figure 1: Vaccine Administration from U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey (HPS).

The figure above compares vaccine administration data from HPS with U.S. statistics from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Their findings show that the number that HPS reported to have received or plan to recieve their required doses corresponds with the CDC data on the number of people who received at least one dose.

This also shows data regarding vaccine administration to people 65+ years of age, which was among the first groups eligible for the vaccine. This group, which represents the largest share of potential vaccine recipients, helps visualize vaccine rollout in its early stages. 

Table 1: The Effects of the Vaccine Rollout on Restaurant and Retail Spending

The estimates displayed in table 1 confirm the vaccine rollout has significantly boosted restaurant and retail spending. They use a standard deviation (sd) to account for the increase in the number of people that are planning to receive the vaccine and the increase in the number of recipients since mid-January.

Their findings show that a 1.5-sd increase in the number of vaccine recipients translates into a 45 to 55% of an sd in proxies of restaurant spending, 175% of an sd in grocery visits, and 110% of an sd in visits to pharmacies. The number of people reporting fewer trips to stores than normal also declined by 30% of an sd following a baseline shock in vaccinations. Increases in mobility also show that younger groups resumed activity as soon as the older age groups (65+ were vaccinated), rather than waiting for their own eligibility.

Make sure you check out the full research paper:

The Vaccine Boost: An Analysis of the Impact of the COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout on Measures of Activity

Ashley Sexton and Maria D. Tito

Federal Reserve FEDS Notes June 1, 2021

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-vaccine-boost-an-analysis-of-the-impact-of-the-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-on-measures-of-activity-20210601.htm

This research was made possible with SafeGraph point of interest and mobility data. To learn more about how you can use SafeGraph and Placekey yourself, and how others are already leveraging it for their own research, join the Placekey community.